A doctor is called in to see a sick kid. The doctor knows that 90% of the sick kids in the neighborhood have the flu, while the other 10% have the measles. (Assume that's it for diseases right now).
95% of the kids who have the measles develop a rash. Only 8% of the kids with the flu develop a rash.
The doctor, looking at the child, notices a rash. What is the probability the kid has the measles?
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9.5% maybe?
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